Originalni naučni rad/Original scientific paper
UDC 551.583:633.15 (437.6)
DOI 10.7251/HER2218035Z
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Matej Žilinski1, Slobodan Gnjato2 i Bernard Šiška1
1Slovački poljoprivredni univerzitet u Nitri, Fakultet evropskih studija i regionalnog razvoja, Odsjek za ekologiju, Nitra, Slovačka
2Univerzitet u Banjoj Luci, Prirodno-matematički fakultet, Banja Luka, Republika Srpska
Sažetak: U radu se tematizuje modelovanje prinosa kultura i vremenskih uslova pod uticajem klimatskih promjena. Analizira se odnos između agroekosistema i klime sa fokusom na proizvodnju zrna kukuruza (Zeamays L.). Pomoću modela Daisy simulirani su efekti klimatskih promjena, prema IPCC SRES A1B scenariju, na potencijal prinosa kukuruza u najproduktivnijim poljoprivrednim regionima Slovačke − Nitri i Milhostovu. Projekcije prinosa bazirane su na GCM ARPEGE podacima dobijenim za periode 2021−20150. i 2071−2100.
godine. Rezultati simulacija potom su upoređeni sa proizvodnjom po hektaru u periodu 1961−1990. godine.
Ključne riječi: modelovanje prinosa kultura i vremenskih uslova, Daisy model, klimatske promjene, kukuruz, prinos kukuruza, adaptacije, A1B scenario.
Matej Žilinský1, Slobodan Gnjato2 and Bernard Šiška1
1Slovak University of Agriculture in Nitra, Faculty of European Studies and Regional Development, Department of Ecology, Nitra, Slovak Republic
2University of Banja Luka, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Banja Luka, Republic of Srpska
Abstract: This paper deals with crop-weather modelling under conditions of climate change. It analyses relations between agroecosystem and climate with focus on grain production of maize (Zea mays L.). Daisy model simulated the effects of climate change by using IPCC SRES A1B scenario on yield potential of maize in Nitra and Milhostov, located in the most productive agricultural regions of Slovakia. The yield predictions were based on the GCM ARPEGE outputs for projection the 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 periods. Yields were simulated for the periods and compared with 1961–1990 hectare production.
Key words: crop-weather modelling, model Daisy, climate change, maize, corn yield, adaptation, A1B scenario.
CITIRAJTE (Cite this article):
Žilinski, M., Gnjato, S., & Šiška, B. (2018). Uticaj klimatskih promjena na proizvodnju kukuruza u Slovačkoj i njena projekcija do 2100. godine. Herald, 22, 35‒47. doi:10.7251/HER2218035Z
Žilinský, M., Gnjato, S., & Šiška, B. (2018). The Impact of Climate Change on Maize Production and Its Projection by 2100 in Slovakia. Herald, 22, 35‒47. doi:10.7251/HER2218035Z
Autor za korespondenciju: Matej Žilinski, Slovački poljoprivredni univerzitet u Nitri, Fakultet evropskih studija i regionalnog razvoja, Odsjek za ekologiju, Marianska 10, 94901, Nitra, Republika Slovačka, E-mail: xzilinsky@uniag.sk
Corresponding author: Matej Žilinský, Slovak University of Agriculture in Nitra, Faculty of European Studies and Regional Development, Department of Ecology, Mariánska 10, 94901, Nitra, Slovak Republic, E-mail: xzilinsky@uniag.sk