Originalni naučni rad/Original scientific paper
UDC 628.1.033(497.6):502.51(282)
DOI 10.7251/HER2226001T
COBISS.RS-ID 137072129
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Goran Trbić¹* , Vladimir Đurđević² , Tatjana Popov¹ , Stevan Savić³ i Dragan Burić^4
1Univerzitet u Banjoj Luci, Prirodno-matematički fakultet, Banja Luka, Republika Srpska;
²Univerzitet u Beogradu, Fizički fakultet, Beograd, Srbija;
³Univerzitet u Novom Sadu, Prirodno-matematički fakultet, Novi Sad, Srbija;
⁴Univerzitet Crne Gore, Filozofski fakultet, Nikšić, Crna Gora

Sažetak: U radu su prikazane projektovane promjene temperatura vazduha i količine padavina u slivu rijeke Vrbas prema klimatskom scenariju RCP8.5. Na osnovu satelitskih podataka izrađene su mape za prosječne mjesečne, sezonske i godišnje vrijednosti temperature vazduha, sume padavina i visine snježnog pokrivača za tri perioda: 2011–2040, 2041–2071. i 2071–2100. u odnosu na bazni period 1971–2000. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da se na prostoru sliva rijeke Vrbas može očekivati porast temperature i smanjivanje suma padavina i snježnog pokrivača do kraja XXI vijeka. Povećanje temperatura vazduha može se očekivati u svim mjesecima tokom godine, ali je najizraženije u januaru, avgustu, novembru i decembru, kada povećanje može dostići i do 5 °C do kraja ovog vijeka. Očekivano kolebanje padavina će biti više izraženo. Do 2040. može se očekivati povećanje padavina za period proljeće za 10 % u odnosu na period 1971–2000. Do kraja vijeka klimatski scenariji ukazuju na konstantno smanjivanje padavina i do 20 % na godišnjem nivou, ali na veliku neravnomjernost u raspodjeli tokom sezona, što može usloviti probleme sa sušom i poplavama. Ključne riječi: klimatske projekcije, klimatski scenarij RCP8.5, temperatura vazduha, padavine, snježni pokrivač, klimatske promjene, sliv rijeke Vrbas.

PROJECTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGES IN THE VRBAS RIVER BASIN

Goran Trbić¹*, Vladimir Đurđević², Tatjana Popov¹, Stevan Savić³ and Dragan Burić^4
1University of Banja Luka, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Banja Luka, Republic of Srpska
²University of Belgrade, Faculty of Physics, Belgrade, Serbia
³University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Novi Sad, Serbia
⁴University of Montenegro, Faculty of Philosophy, Nikšić, Montenegro

Abstract: The paper presents projected changes in air temperature and precipitation in the Vrbas River basin according to the RCP8.5 climate scenario. Based on satellite data, maps were created for average monthly, seasonal and annual values of air temperature, total precipitation and snow cover height for three periods: 2011–2040, 2041–2071. and 2071–2100. compared to the base period 1971–2000. The results of the research show that in the area of the Vrbas river basin, an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation and snow cover can be expected until the end of the 21st century. An increase in air temperatures can be expected in all months throughout the year, but it is most pronounced in January, August, November and December, when the increase can reach up to 5 °C by the end of this century. The expected fluctuation of precipitation will be more pronounced. By 2040, an increase in precipitation for the spring period can be expected by 10 % compared to the period 1971–2000. By the end of the century, climate scenarios indicate a constant decrease in precipitation of up to 20 % on an annual basis, but a large uneven distribution during the seasons, which can cause problems with both drought and floods. Key words: climate projections, RCP8.5 climate scenario, air temperature, precipitation, snow cover, climate change, Vrbas river basin.

CITIRAJTE (Cite this article):

Trbić, G., Đurđević, V., Popov, T., Savić, S., & Burić, D. (2022). Projekcije klimatskih promjena u slivu rijeke Vrbas. Glasnik/Herald, 26, 1–25. https://doi.org/10.7251/HER2226001T

Trbić, G., Đurđević, V., Popov, T., Savić, S., & Burić, D. (2022). Projections of Climate Changes in the Vrbas River Basin. Glasnik/Herald, 26, 1–25. https://doi.org/10.7251/HER2226001T

Autor za korespondenciju: Goran Trbić, Univerzitet u Banjoj Luci, Prirodno-matematički fakultet, Mladena Stojanovića 2, 78000 Banja Luka, Republika Srpska, Bosna i Hercegovina, E-mail: goran.trbic@pmf.unibl.org
Corresponding author: Goran Trbić, University of Banja Luka, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Mladena Stojanovića 2, 78000 Banja Luka, Republic of Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina, E-mail: goran.trbic@pmf.unibl.org