Originalni naučni rad/Original scientific paper
UDC 551.586:[502.131.1:631.16(497.6)
DOI 10.7251/HER1923035P
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Tatjana Popov i Dragica Delić
Univerzitet u Banjoj Luci, Prirodno-matematički fakultet, Banja Luka, Republika Srpska

Sažetak: Rad analizira savremene klimatske promjene na području Semberije i njihov uticaj na agrarnu proizvodnju. Na osnovu mjesečnih podataka o temperaturi i padavinama sa meteorološke stanice Bijeljina, utvrđeni su trendovi temperature vazduha, padavina, hidrotermičkog koeficijenta prema Seljaninovu i indeksa suše prema De Martonu u periodu 1961−2017. godine. Rezultati pokazuju da temperatura vazduha ima tendenciju rasta tokom cijele godine, dok su trendovi padavina sezonski promjenljivi  (najizraženiji su negativan trend u sezoni ljeto i pozitivan u jesen). Negativni trendovi hidrotermičkog koeficijenta i indeksa  suše u sezoni ljeto ukazuju na povećanje aridnosti klime. Prinosi poljoprivrednih kultura pokazuju snažnu
zavisnost klimatskih uslova, a prvenstveno od temperature vazduha i dostupne količine padavina u kritičnim fazama njihovog razvoja. Utvrđena je značajna negativna korelacija između prinosa kukuruza u Semberiji i temperature u vegetacionom periodu (a naročito u sezoni ljeto), te značajna pozitivna korelacija sa količinom padavina i vrijednostima hidrotermičkog koeficijenta i indeksa suše u navedenim periodima godine. Očekuje se da će klimatske promjene negativno uticati na prinos usjeva i globalnu proizvodnju hrane, stoga će biti nužno preduzeti niz mjera i aktivnosti u cilju adaptacije i mitigacije poljoprivredne proizvodnje u jednom od najvažnijih agrarnih područja u Republici Srpskoj i Bosni i Hercegovini.
Ključne riječi: klimatske promjene, agrarna proizvodnja, prinosi kukuruza, Semberija.

RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SEMBERIJA REGION − IMPACT ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

Tatjana Popov and Dragica Delić
University of Banja Luka, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Banja Luka, Republic of Srpska

Abstract: The paper analyzes recent climate change over the Semberija region and their impact on agricultural production. Based on monthly temperature and precipitation data from the Bijeljina meteorological station, trends in temperature, precipitation, Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient and De Marton drought index in the period 1961−2017 were determined. The results showed increasing temperature tendency throughout the year, whereas the precipitation trends were seasonally variable (the most prominent were a negative trend in summer season and a positive trend in autumn). Negative trends in the hydrothermal coefficient and drought index in the summer season indicate an increase in climate aridity. Crop yields show a strong dependence on climatic conditions, primarily on temperature and the available precipitation in the critical stages of their development. A significant negative correlation between the corn yields in Semberija and temperatures in the growing season (and particularly in the summer season) was determined, as well as a significant positive correlation with the precipitation, the hydrothermal coefficient and the drought index in these parts of the year. It is expected that climate change will negatively affect crop yields and global food production. Therefore, it will be necessary to undertake a range of measures and activities aimed at the adaptation and mitigation of agricultural production in one of the most important agrarian areas in the Republic of Srpska and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Key words: climate change, agricultural production, corn yields, Semberija.

CITIRAJTE (Cite this article):
Popov, T., & Delić, D. (2019). Savremene klimatske promjene na području Semberije − uticaji na agrarnu proizvodnju. Herald, 23, 35‒58. doi:10.7251/HER1923035P
Popov, T., & Delić, D. (2019). Recent Climate Change in the Semberija Region − Impact on Agricultural Production. Herald, 23, 35‒58. doi:10.7251/HER1923035P

Autor za korespondenciju: Tatjana Popov, Univerzitet u Banjoj Luci, Prirodno-matematički fakultet, Mladena Stojanovića 2, 78000 Banja Luka, Republika Srpska, Bosna i Hercegovina, E-mail: tatjana.popov@pmf.unibl.org
Corresponding author: Tatjana Popov, University of Banja Luka, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Mladena Stojanovića 2, 78000 Banja Luka, Republic of Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina, E-mail: tatjana.popov@pmf.unibl.org